2011年10月14日星期五

我看见Zhulian的曙光了


如冷眼前辈说,股票投资人第一眼必须看财务报告的每股盈利(EPS, Earning Per Share)。在上一篇的zhulian分析文章,果然神准地预测这季EPS有5.29sen(本人预测5.28sen,可以摆上神台了,哈哈!)


报告说:

The revenue for the current quarter under review of RM91.795 million was slightly lower than the
immediate preceding quarter’s revenue of RM92.687 million. This was mainly due to a slight drop in 
the overseas market demands, offset by increase in local market demand. (奇怪了?这季泰国的业绩比上季强很多啊!)
The current quarter’s profit before tax of RM29.768 million has increased as compared to the immediate preceding quarter’s profit before tax of RM23.662 million. This was mainly contributed by increased profit of equity accounted investee during the third quarter (这个更奇怪?投资在investee这季和上季只是相差500k左右,问题是上季的价值比这季高叻!)whereas there were more meetings, seminars and incentive tour campaigns held during the immediate preceding quarter.
报告已经简简单单了,现在还要潦潦草草,我们这些小股东要如何看透公司呢?还是我本人误解了报告的内容?请高人指点!

好了,把时间往三个月后推,依照历史来观察,第四季的业绩是最漂亮的。保守估计,应用回第二季的营业额(第四季应该比较高的),得出的EPS至少有5.59sen(合理的每股盈利)。所以,全年的每股盈利必定超越20sen了。看来,泰国的业绩又要开始了二轮爆发了。还有一个利好因素,美金从9月开始转强了,如果强势美金持续到年尾,多多少少都会影像它的盈利的。如果非常乐观的预测,以这两个利好因素,相信zhulian可以挑战每股盈利达到6sen。(如果达到,应该会有特别股息。)

同样的,zhulian派发3sen股息。如果有缘投资人能在九月股市低潮时,以RM1.50进场,单单股息回酬就有8%,好过定存两倍半。Zhulian单以股息就可以养老了,可惜手中没有zhulian了,已经转去其它比较有潜能的股了,除非zhulian能达到股息回酬10%以上(RM1.20),才打算持有。老天爷在作怪,大市已经崩溃了,还以为能达到目标价,途中却杀出一只大牛。我也得感恩这只突然出现的牛,要不然我真的要借兵再上战场了。


月线图的RSI和Stochastic出现了买入讯号,可惜MACD还未出现。多两、三个月应该可以对zhulian的走势更清楚。

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