PADINI再创新高

Financial Year 30 of June	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Shareholder fund	118,066	120,617	169,478	204,045	242,136
Revenue	286,107	316,866	383,306	475,477
Net Profit	27,691	31,403	41,715	49,533
Total Asset	156,600	195,734	264,314	289,375	343,141
Current Asset	118,121	142,121	189,870	208,164	262,047
Total Liablities	37,449	53,067	94,836	85,330	101,005
Current Liabilities	32,055	48,718	91,622	81,797	90,235
Net Asset per Share	93.5	108.5	128.8	155.1	1.84
EPS 1Q (sen)			8.78	13.76	15.31
EPS 2Q (sen)			11.15	11.22	8.75
EPS 3Q (sen)			10.5	8.38	13.12
EPS 4Q (sen)			1.28	4.27	*4.27
EPS (sen)	22.02	24.24	31.71	37.64	*41.45
Dividend (sen)	10	12.5	15	14	*15
EPS Growth Rate		10.1	30.8	18.7	*10.1
ROE	23.45	26.04	24.61	24.28	*22.04
D/E Ratio	0.32	0.44	0.56	0.42	*0.42
Liquidity Ratio	3.68	2.92	2.07	2.54	*2.90

完全出乎我预料的PADINI第3季业绩，竟然可以创下13.12sen的EPS。管理层真的说实话，农历新年的销售业绩果然在这一季呈现出来。以如此的业绩来看，PADINI的2010年年度业绩肯定可以再创新高了，预期可以达到每股41.45sen的净利。

从报告中，可以看得出管理层对2010年的年度业绩很有信心。

"The Group has year-to-date already earned a profit after taxation that is nearly equal to the whole amount earned during the previous financial year; although the April to June quarter is traditionally the weakest of all the financial quarters, we are confident that the quarter will nevertheless still be profitable as several promotional events have already been planned for the three months concerned. As such, the Group expects the year to improve upon the performance achieved in the previous financial year."

如果真如所预期的业绩，那么以10到12的本益比计算，PADINI的合理价格将会在RM4.15到RM4.98。今天的闭市价才RM3.60，股价应该还有15%到40%的上升空间。同时，这季PADINI也宣布了派发7.5sen的中期单层制股息，所以预测全年股息将会是15sen。那么全年股息回酬4.2%，相比银行定存还是高了许多。


PADINI的现金流又如何呢？我想应该可以说PADINI拥有强劲的现金流，因为销售都是收取现金的。D/E ratio 和liquidity ratio都达到安全的比率，此外PADINI目前拥有1.42亿的现金，如果扣除了全部负债，还剩下4千万现金，所以PADINI是净现金流公司。再看看PADINI的每股净资产，大约是RM1.84，因为没有注明无型资产，所以就假设NTA和Net Asset Per Share 是一样，也就是RM1.84。以目前的NTA，预测PADINI很可能会发红股。如果盈利能够持续增长，那么PADINI可能会在下几季内发红股。


总结来说，PADINI也将会是我下一次投资的股项。